External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has warned that the world could face a “major food crisis” in the coming months as geopolitical conflicts disrupt grain shipments, tighten fertiliser supplies and put further pressure on global energy markets.
Speaking at an Asia Society event in New York on September 28, Jaishankar said the Ukraine and Iran-Gulf conflicts were having a significant impact on Global South economies, with disruptions spreading across critical supply chains.
From a supply chain perspective, the concern extends beyond food production to the movement and availability of key agricultural inputs. Jaishankar said some major grain exporters may not be able to ship cargo, particularly through the Black Sea, while fertiliser availability is also coming under pressure as production in key supplier countries in West Asia and Russia is affected.
Energy, fertiliser and freight pressures converge
The disruption to energy supplies is adding another layer of pressure. Jaishankar described the energy market as “very tight” and warned that political interventions around oil supplies could further complicate the market and push up prices.
Higher energy costs can feed through the logistics chain, increasing the cost of transportation, storage and other supply chain operations. At the same time, constrained fertiliser supplies can raise agricultural input costs and create challenges around the timely movement of fertiliser to farming regions.
Jaishankar described the interaction between the security and politics of oil supplies as a “double crisis or an aggravated crisis”, with the effects extending beyond energy markets into food and other essential commodities.
Grain corridors face renewed pressure
The potential disruption to grain exports is particularly significant for global food supply chains. The Black Sea has been a critical corridor for agricultural trade, and any restrictions on shipments from major exporting regions can affect availability, freight flows and prices in import-dependent markets.
The risk is compounded when supply disruptions coincide with higher transportation and energy costs. For logistics operators, this can translate into greater uncertainty around routing, freight costs, cargo availability and delivery timelines.
Fertiliser shortages could affect future harvests
The fertiliser constraint also creates a supply chain risk that can emerge with a time lag. If fertiliser becomes scarce or more expensive, farmers may reduce application or face delays in receiving inputs, potentially affecting crop yields in subsequent harvest cycles.
Jaishankar said the situation could become more difficult when combined with adverse climate patterns such as a potential Super El Niño. Together, disruptions to energy, fertiliser and agricultural commodities could put additional stress on food supply chains in the months ahead.
For Global South economies, Jaishankar said the pressure is not limited to food and energy. Conflict-driven financial flows towards safer markets can also reduce the availability of capital for developing economies, adding another layer of vulnerability.
“The net result of it has been really very very stressful,” Jaishankar said, referring to the combined pressure from energy, food, fertilisers and finance.
The warning underscores how closely interconnected global supply chains have become. Disruption at an energy source or production hub can quickly move downstream through shipping corridors, agricultural inputs, freight networks and, ultimately, food markets.
