India’s e-commerce market is projected to reach $250 billion by 2030, up from an estimated $90 billion in 2025, driven by the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), the rise of vernacular commerce, and increasing internet penetration in smaller towns, according to a joint report by Shiprocket and Deloitte.
The report, titled ‘AI for Bharat Commerce: Unlocking the $250 Billion Business Opportunity’, highlights that the next wave of growth will be fuelled not just by technological advancements but also by the expansion of digital consumption beyond metro cities. It identifies AI-led personalisation, intelligent product discovery, predictive customer engagement and fulfilment innovation as key factors reshaping the online retail landscape.
A large share of this growth is expected to come from Bharat. India currently has 488 million rural internet users, accounting for 55% of its total active internet base. Additionally, 98% of users consume content in Indic languages, while vernacular voice searches are growing 156% faster than English queries, signalling a clear shift towards regional language-driven digital experiences.
Tier-II and Tier-III cities are emerging as critical growth drivers, contributing over 60% of India’s online shoppers. This reflects rising digital adoption and increasing purchasing power in non-metro regions.
The report outlines three major trends that will shape India’s e-commerce sector over the next five years: AI-powered personalisation through conversational commerce and visual discovery, AI-driven conversion intelligence to improve engagement and retention, and Bharat-led digital expansion supported by deeper internet access and vernacular content.
Consumer acceptance of AI is also gaining momentum. Around 90% of Indian consumers believe generative AI has enhanced their online shopping experience. From a business perspective, recognised returning customers convert at 2.1 times the rate of new users, while brands with repeat purchase rates above 25% generate profit margins 3.4 times higher than those with lower repeat rates.
“Consumers today expect faster, more personalised and more convenient shopping experiences. For businesses, this means investing in AI, strengthening fulfilment capabilities and building experiences that cater to customers across both metro and emerging markets,” said Saahil Goel, Managing Director and CEO, Shiprocket.
Dr Anand Ramanathan, Partner and Consumer Industry Leader at Deloitte India, added that the next phase of India’s commerce growth will be led by companies that deploy AI “with precision, speed and discipline.”
The report combines industry research, market trends and Shiprocket’s platform insights to examine how AI is transforming product discovery, customer engagement and fulfilment, while positioning Bharat as the next major growth engine for India’s digital commerce ecosystem.
