The US-Iran peace agreement has eased fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important maritime corridors. However, shipping analysts warn that the deal is unlikely to deliver an immediate return to normality, with container supply chains expected to remain disrupted for months and freight rates continuing to rise in the near term.
While the agreement reduces the risk of further escalation in the Gulf, maritime authorities must first complete extensive mine-clearance operations before commercial shipping can fully resume through established navigation channels. Industry experts believe the recovery of global ocean networks may not be complete until mid-September.
“The agreement should be greeted with realism and extreme caution,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta. “Even if the ceasefire holds, around 10% of global container shipping capacity is impacted by the blockade and freight rates are spiralling across major trades. This scale of disruption and market volatility cannot be reversed overnight.”
The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant share of global energy exports and serves as a critical gateway connecting Gulf economies with international markets. Although the peace agreement has removed the immediate threat of a prolonged shutdown, dozens of mines are still believed to be present in the waterway, limiting vessel movements and preventing a full reopening of normal shipping lanes.
Nearly 10% of Global Container Capacity Disrupted
According to Xeneta, the blockade has severely disrupted container shipping networks since the conflict escalated in late February.
Before the crisis, 99 container services operated in or transited the Arabian Gulf, deploying a combined capacity of approximately 3.2 million TEU, representing around 10% of the global container fleet. Today, only 11 services remain active in the region, accounting for just 74,000 TEU of deployed capacity.
Of the 488 vessels that were operating on Arabian Gulf routes before the crisis, only 18 continue to serve the region, while 470 ships have been redeployed elsewhere across global networks.
The disruption has triggered significant capacity shortages and vessel schedule dislocations across major trade lanes, extending far beyond the Middle East.
Freight Rates Continue to Surge
The impact is already visible in global freight markets.
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February, spot container rates from the Far East to the US West Coast have increased by 192%, rising from US$1,879 per FEU to US$5,493 per FEU. Rates to the US East Coast have surged 158%, while Far East-North Europe rates have more than doubled.
Even in the past week, rates have climbed sharply, increasing 29% on the Far East-US West Coast trade and 25% on the Far East-US East Coast route.
The surge is being driven by cargo owners rushing to secure capacity ahead of anticipated bunker fuel surcharges and concerns over vessel availability.
“Shippers are frontloading imports ahead of bunker fuel surcharge increases and fears over available capacity, with many being told ships are full on trades out of Asia for weeks in advance,” Sand said.
Although oil and bunker fuel prices have softened in recent days following the peace agreement, shipping analysts expect freight rates to continue rising until the strait is fully reopened.
Mine Clearance Remains the Key Obstacle
Under the terms of the US-Iran agreement, both sides have committed to restoring safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the memorandum reportedly allows up to 30 days for mine-sweeping operations, and industry observers believe the process could take considerably longer.
Shipping experts warn that normal traffic patterns cannot resume until vessels can safely transit through designated shipping channels.
“Spot rates will keep climbing for as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open,” Sand said. “That could be four more weeks or longer depending on how complex the de-mining operation turns out to be.”
Maritime stakeholders also continue to monitor security risks in the region, including navigational challenges and concerns over potential renewed hostilities.
Recovery Expected in Three Stages
The first priority will be evacuating vessels that have remained trapped inside the Arabian Gulf for nearly four months. Several ships entered the region before the closure and have been unable to leave since.
The second stage will involve restoring feeder and regional services connecting Gulf ports. These smaller services are expected to return first because they carry lower operational risk.
The final phase will see the reintroduction of major long-haul container services linking Asia with Europe and North America. Shipping lines are expected to proceed cautiously given the significant financial and operational consequences of any renewed disruption.
“Carriers had to act fast when the conflict escalated and the Strait of Hormuz closed in February, but the return will be far more cautious,” Sand said.
A Different Network May Emerge
Analysts believe the post-crisis shipping landscape may differ significantly from the network structure that existed before the conflict.
Carriers are expected to build greater resilience into their operations by increasing the use of transshipment hubs and regional feeder networks serving Gulf markets. While such models may add transit time, they reduce exposure to future disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
For global supply chains, the US-Iran agreement marks a critical turning point, removing the immediate threat of a deeper trade crisis. However, the restoration of shipping services, vessel schedules and freight markets is expected to be a gradual process, with the effects of the blockade likely to be felt across global supply chains for several more months.
