India’s express logistics industry is moving faster than ever, but speed is no longer the whole story. Beneath the promise of same-day delivery lies a sector being reshaped by rising costs, shifting demand beyond metros, and a quiet battle for control over data and networks. This story traces how networks have evolved from fragmented, linear models to dense, tech-enabled ecosystems, and how competition is moving beyond assets to intelligence. It examines the role of policy in unlocking efficiency, the mounting cost pressures beneath rapid delivery, and the operational realities of scaling into Tier II and III markets. Finally, it looks ahead to a more mature phase of growth, where resilience, data-led decision-making, and disciplined expansion will determine who leads the next chapter.
India’s express logistics over the years have transformed from slow trucks to same-hour delivery, unleashing a market that stands tall with a growth of 15-17% CAGR at USD 9-10 billion.
Historically, a facilitator of basic cargo and B2B shipments, express logistics, from a mere support function, is now a vital economic driver, fuelled by surging e-commerce, MSME expansion, and rising consumption patterns. A major shift was observed when, during COVID, the industry acted as an artery, maintaining the essential supply chains, ensuring uninterrupted movement of critical goods and supporting India’s overall economic recovery through its nationwide delivery network. Post-pandemic, it shifted to an essential service with B2C/C2C segments now dominating 55% of the market, driven by consumer demands for speed.
Vijay Kumar, CEO of EICI, notes, “The express industry in India, once considered a niche sector, has now become an integral part of the Indian transport and logistics landscape. It plays a crucial role in managing supply chains across traditional industries—from automotive and BFSI to lifestyle and pharmaceuticals.”
He adds, “With the rapid growth of e-commerce and quick commerce, the sector has also become a key enabler for new-age industries. Supported by robust infrastructure and an extensive network, it continues to facilitate seamless logistics operations across the country, making it a versatile and critical component of the Indian economy.”
As demand expands across a wider set of pincodes, networks are becoming more sophisticated, backed by investments in infrastructure, automation, and data intelligence.
In this new landscape, express logistics sits at the intersection of commerce, technology, and consumption. Its role is no longer reactive, it is actively shaping demand patterns, enabling new business models, and accelerating the pace of India’s economic growth.
What makes this transition particularly significant is the scale at which it is unfolding. The sector is not just evolving; it is expanding rapidly, with volumes, revenues, and network reach growing in tandem, setting the stage for its next phase of growth.
The Growth Story
India’s express logistics industry is on a strong growth trajectory, but the story is as much about structural transformation as it is about rising demand.
The market, currently valued at around USD 9 billion in FY25, is projected to nearly double to USD 18–19 billion by FY30, growing at a steady 13–15% CAGR. Shipment volumes are expected to expand even faster, from 10–11 billion to nearly 29 billion over the same period, reflecting the increasing intensity of parcel movement across the economy.
The domestic segment continues to dominate, accounting for nearly 70% of the market (USD 6.4-6.5 billion), largely driven by surface transport. At the same time, international express is gaining momentum, led by crossborder e-commerce and rising MSME participation in global trade. This growth is underpinned by a broader expansion in India’s freight ecosystem, projected to scale from USD 383 billion in 2026 to USD 592 billion by 2031.
Yet, the real story lies beneath these headline numbers. While e-commerce remains the most visible driver, contributing over 50% of express parcel volumes, growth is increasingly being shaped by deeper structural shifts.
Harshal Bhoi, CBO, Xpressbees, points to the depth of demand-side transformation: “The industry’s strong growth is being driven by several structural demand factors. Rising smartphone penetration and affordable data have significantly expanded digital access, while the rollout of 5G is enabling faster, smoother checkout experiences. Social commerce is playing a key role in bringing first-time buyers online, supported by increasingly optimized and user-friendly checkout journeys. In addition, AI-led personalization is enhancing customer engagement, and post-COVID, online shopping has firmly become a habit. This is further reinforced by improvements in logistics speed and reach, making e-commerce more reliable and accessible.”
Policy interventions such as the National Logistics Policy and PM Gati Shakti are improving multimodal connectivity and reducing logistics costs. Infrastructure investments and dedicated freight corridors are compressing transit times, while automation and AI are enabling scale without proportionate cost increases.
MSMEs are also emerging as a critical growth engine, leveraging improved network access and simplified export mechanisms to expand both domestically and globally. At the same time, consumption patterns continue to evolve, with e-commerce penetration rising from 3% in FY19 to around 7% in FY25, and quick commerce expanding into 400+ cities.
Chandra Prakash, Chief Business Officer (CBO), Trackon, offers a grounded perspective, “The logistics industry is firmly on a high-growth trajectory, fueled by structural tailwinds such as the rapid expansion of e-commerce, the rise of quick commerce, and sustained demand within the traditional courier ecosystem. However, growth in itself is not the defining metric of success. The real differentiators are execution excellence, network resilience, and disciplined cost management. While market optimism remains strong, there are pockets of overestimation— particularly around the pace at which scale can translate into sustainable profitability. Going forward, we anticipate a phase of consolidation, with leadership emerging among players who can strike the right balance between aggressive growth and operational efficiency.”
Profitability, especially in last-mile delivery, continues to be a challenge due to high operational costs and limited pricing power. The industry’s dependence on large e-commerce platforms also introduces concentration risks, while ambitious projections hinge on consistent consumption growth and infrastructure execution.
The next phase of growth will therefore depend not just on expanding volumes, but on how effectively the industry balances scale with sustainability. The opportunity is significant, but so is the need for disciplined execution.
Vikram Manshukani, National Operations Head, Blue Dart, highlights the shift, “The old playbook—bulk consignments moving through hub-and-spoke systems—doesn’t hold up when you’re dealing with millions of individual shipments going to dispersed addresses. Delivery density drops, lastmile costs climb, and RTO becomes a real problem. A returned shipment often costs nearly as much to process as the original dispatch.”
Naman Vijay, CEO and co-founder, ClickPost, highlights how the focus has moved beyond tracking to deeper intelligence: “Tracking was the first wave; it’s table stakes now. What’s actually driving efficiency and margin improvement is the intelligence sitting underneath carrier networks.”
Ketan Kulkarni, Managing Director & CEO, Allcargo Logistics, underscores the importance of combining physical and digital scale, “Simultaneously, we have invested in digital platforms and automation. Our integration with platforms like ONDC further strengthens our role in enabling a more inclusive and digitally connected commerce ecosystem. With the combination of infrastructure scale, multimodal integration and digital intelligence, we deliver consistent, time-definite service at scale— supporting India’s growing consumption and trade ambitions.”
This is an abridged version of the Cover Story published in the May edition of the Logistics Insider Magazine. To read the complete story, click here.
